The Law of Technology Advancement
Computer chips are complex devices made up of layers of transistors. The more transistors a computer has, the faster it can perform complex calculations. That`s why it`s so important for technological progress to make them smaller and integrate them more into a single chip. On the one hand, Moore`s Law spurred technological progress. An entire industry has been pushed to follow Moore`s prediction. As a result, many of Moore`s other predictions about technology, such as personal computers or personal portable communication devices, all powered by tiny processors, have also come true. Quality-adjusted price of IT equipment – The quality- and inflation-adjusted price of information technology (IT), computers and peripherals decreased by an average of 16% per year over the five decades from 1959 to 2009. [159] [160] However, the pace accelerated to 23% per year in 1995-1999, driven by faster IT innovation,[133] and then slowed to 2% per year in 2010-2013. [159] [161] Dennard scaling – This postulates that energy consumption would decrease proportionally to the surface area (voltage and current are proportional to length) of the transistors.
Combined with Moore`s Law, power per watt would increase at about the same rate as transistor density, doubling every 1-2 years. According to Dennard, the scaling of transistor dimensions would increase by 30% (0.7x) with each generation of technology, reducing their surface area by 50%. This would reduce the delay by 30% (0.7x) and thus increase the operating frequency by about 40% (1.4x). Finally, to keep the electric field constant, the voltage would be reduced by 30%, the energy by 65% and the power (at 1.4 times the frequency) by 50%. [c] Therefore, in each generation of technology, the density of transistors would double, the circuit would become 40% faster, while the power consumption (with twice as many transistors) would remain the same. [153] The Dennard measurement ended in 2005-2010 due to leakage currents. [20] Roadmaps for the computer industry predicted in 2001 that Moore`s Law would persist for several generations of semiconductor chips. [75] Many innovations by scientists and engineers have supported Moore`s Law since the beginning of the integrated circuit era. Some of the key innovations are listed below, as examples of breakthroughs that have advanced the technology of manufacturing integrated circuits and semiconductor devices, allowing the number of transistors to increase by more than seven orders of magnitude in less than five decades. Microprocessor architects report that semiconductor advances have slowed across the industry since about 2010 at the rate predicted by Moore`s Law. [20] Brian Krzanich, the former CEO of Intel, cited Moore`s 1975 revision as a precedent for the current slowdown, which is the result of technical challenges and is “a natural part of Moore`s Law history.” [33] [34] [35] The rate of improvement in physical dimensions known as Dennard`s scaling also ended in the mid-2000s.
As a result, much of the semiconductor industry has focused on the needs of large computing applications rather than scaling semiconductors. [28] [36] [20] Nevertheless, major semiconductor manufacturers TSMC and Samsung Electronics claimed to keep pace with Moore`s Law,[37][38][39][40][41][42] with 10 nm and 7 nm nodes in mass production[37][38] and 5 nm nodes in risk production. [43] [44] All this complexity essentially “slowed down” Moore`s Law. Moving to a new process node is always an option, but the extreme complexity and associated costs have slowed the pace of migration. In addition, each new process node now provides less dramatic results in terms of density, performance, and power reduction. The development of semiconductor process technology is reaching its molecular limits, slowing down the exponential benefits of Moore`s Law. Semiconductor process technology has always become more complex. This phenomenon was the “engine of innovation” behind Moore`s Law. Recently, the increase in complexity has accelerated.
Today`s transistors are three-dimensional devices that exhibit counterintuitive behaviors. The extremely small size of the structure of advanced process technologies required multi-pattern to accurately reproduce these features on a silicon wafer. This has made the design process significantly more complex. Moore`s observation transformed IT from a rare and expensive enterprise into a ubiquitous and affordable necessity. All the modern computer technology we know and appreciate was born from the foundation laid by Moore`s Law. From the internet itself to social media to modern data analytics, all of these innovations come directly from Moore and his ideas. Despite growing concerns about privacy and security, the benefits of increasingly intelligent computer technology can help us stay healthier, safer, and more productive in the long run. It`s been more than 50 years since Moore published his work detailing simple theory, and since then he has revolutionized computing, enabling all the technology we now consider fundamental to life. Eroom`s Law – is an observation of pharmaceutical drug development intentionally written backwards like Moore`s Law to contrast it with the exponential advances of other forms of technology (such as transistors) over time. It says the cost of developing a new drug doubles about every nine years. Moore`s Law predicted that the technology would continue to decline at a rate, meaning twice as many transistors would fit into a single computer chip each year, Technology Review reported.
In 1975, this forecast was adjusted slightly to double every two years. Today, we all appreciate and benefit from this technology, we have become accustomed to rapid developments and anticipate future innovations. As a representative on the client side, it is said that you continue to wait and demand technological progress. Oh, really? Meanwhile, Intel itself has developed new technologies such as 3D CPU transistors or GAAFAT that are designed for 10x processing power and efficiency. These advances alone could lead to new processors that will maintain Moore`s Law well beyond 2025. But maybe we`re already there. Robert Colwell, head of the microsystems technology office at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, is using the year 2020 and 7nm as the last process technology node. “In reality, I expect the industry to do whatever it takes to move to 5nm, even if 5nm doesn`t offer much of an advantage over 7nm, and that pushes the end back to 2022 earliest. I think the ending comes right around those nodes. The study, published in Nature Electronics, suggests that technology can no longer get smaller and that innovators need to find a new way to improve it. What this new path is, no one knows yet. As described in the new study, the future of microprocessors, the tiny computer chips that define our lives, is complicated.
More than Moore (MtM) relies on alternative technologies such as system in packaging, solid-state lighting, integrated radio frequency functions or organic technology. It complements More Moore and can extend the validity of a renewed Moore`s Law for another decade and beyond. “The science behind this technology is still unknown and will require significant research funding — an order of magnitude greater than what is invested today,” Hassan Khan, a Carnegie Mellon University researcher specializing in engineering and public policy, told Tech Explore. Moore co-founded Intel Corporation and his observation became the driving force behind the semiconductor technology revolution at Intel and elsewhere. National Nanotechnology Initiative. “Nanoscale size.” Retrieved 20 August 2020. The slowing down of Moore`s Law has led many to ask, “Is Moore`s Law dead? In fact, this is not the case. Although Moore`s Law still brings exponential improvements, results are delivered more slowly. However, the pace of technological innovation is not slowing down.